With war and the economy in the news, you don’t want to be stuck responding rashly to potential issues like rescheduling or cancellation. So, plan for the worst and hope for the best.
In a time of global conflict and economic stress, it can be difficult to figure out the right play for your event. After all, if it’s not one thing, it’s another.
Recently, a number of events meant to take place in the Middle East were stuck making tough decisions. Rotary International, for example, moved its 2027 event from Dubai to Barcelona. Société Internationale d’Urologie (SIU), meanwhile, transitioned its 2026 Congress from Abu Dhabi to Florence, Italy. In an email, SIU Congress Director Gerri-Lynn Sendyk said that, as tensions rose, strategic instincts took charge.
“While no organizer hopes to change destination plans, our priority was clear: protect attendee participation, preserve program momentum, and act responsibly toward all stakeholders involved,” Sendyk wrote.
It may be something happening halfway around the world. It may be a crisis happening down the street from the convention center. You may have three months to figure it out. You may have five minutes. How do you navigate?
Among other things, Dr. Tyra Warner, the chair of the Department of Hospitality, Tourism, and Culinary Arts at the College of Coastal Georgia, recommends leaning into tabletop exercises and scenario planning ahead of the big event. “It just helps you develop that muscle memory sort of to figure out what needs to be done if X, Y or Z happens.”
Warner, an expert on contractual issues in the event industry, points to two clauses as potential remedies: Force majeure, which removes liabilities from both parties in the case of extraordinary events, is perhaps the best-known.But Warner says that “frustration of purpose,” a situation in which the primary purpose for an event was disrupted or spoiled by an unforeseen circumstance, may also apply, allowing one party to exit a contract.
“It’s a very narrow doctrine, so it’s not one that’s probably gonna be used successfully a lot, but it’s definitely one that should be looked at in certain circumstances and fact patterns,” Warner says.
Even if you’re not immediately facing disruption risks because of global or economic conflict, it’s still worth having a pivot framework in your pocket. Check out our five-step plan for managing your event’s risk:
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1. Monitor the news, both globally and locally.
Event planners looking to have a smooth event can’t just cross their fingers and hope for the best. Understanding the temperature among attendees, among members, and in the news cycle in general is an essential tool, even if it can feel a little doom-scrolly.
After all, a disruptive moment can happen at any time. SIU’s Sendyk was on vacation and caught the news about the United Arab Emirates in passing on a television set. It caused an immediate shift to SIU’s plans.
“In our world, you learn very quickly that even when you are ‘off duty,’ you are never entirely off duty,” she recalled.
Even local events, such as the situation in Minneapolis earlier this year, can prove disruptive. “Nobody wanted to touch it with a 10-foot pole or be associated with it,” Warner recalled.
But even smaller things, from weather to crime to construction, can prove potential issues. For organizations like associations, chapters may be able to help understand the regional dynamic. And don’t forget the convention & visitor’s bureau.
Warner admits that CVBs may be a little wary of sharing negatives about their city, but when asked directly about specific issues, “I think they can be a really good resource.”
2. Assess the pain a shift might cause.
There’s always the potential of risk off in the distance, but having the right game plan and understanding Warner suggests using a probability consequences matrix, or risk matrix, to determine your next steps.
“Anything that’s high likelihood or high probability and high consequences, you’re gonna wanna have a plan for,” she says.
In some cases, it may be impossible to continue, but sometimes you may decide to ride it out, because the event is only a short time away. For example, the International Congress of Mathematicians, facing an international attendee boycott related to the Iran War, appears to be in that position.
“If it’s a low-impact event, maybe you just sort of deal with it, just sort of roll with it, just accept it,” she says. “But I think there’s a lot of stuff in between that you can plan for if you have the time.”
Taking a less-reactionary approach could also help you come up with new game plans as necessary, if (for example) flying becomes cost-prohibitive for your attendees. “Especially with the way fuel prices are going right now, I think regional events may be a very definite possibility,” she says.
3. Determine what your contract says about cancellations.
Making a call on moving, postponing, or cancelling an event is not always as straightforward as, say, a musician facing an unexpected health scare. And it can be costly, even with insurance.
The good news is that a well-written contract may help events avoid such penalties through common doctrines such as force majeure, which frees both parties from a contract when a situation becomes impossible to put on for unforeseeable reasons. There is a distinct line in many cases where the clause takes effect, but situations like the protests in Minneapolis, for example, may muddle whether the line has been crossed.
“Fear alone is generally not a force majeure,” Warner says. “It has to make it something that actually is illegal, impossible, or commercially impracticable, depending on how the clause is written.”
Another key contractual wrinkle is frustration of purpose, which may offer a narrower, but more flexible alternative to force majeure. “Does whatever has happened—the travel ban, the boycott, whatever it is—actually frustrate the purpose of holding the event, make it just not make sense to hold the event?”
But whatever you do, Sendyk says it’s important to approach the situation “with respect and empathy,” especially towards the original host destination.
“Behind every venue contract are real people, teams, and communities working through difficult circumstances,” she explained. “Maintaining those relationships matters, and we remain committed to returning at a future date when conditions allow.”
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4. Game out potential risk factors ahead of time.
The challenge with pivoting your event is that a pivot may be necessary at any time before or even during an event, and you may not have a lot of time to respond immediately.
“That’s why I think advanced planning is so important,” Warner says.
She recommends running through a set of tabletop exercises, gaming out possible scenarios that could disrupt an event, from security incidents, to weather, to labor issues. While it may not cover everything (Warner recalls when a hotel experienced a staff walkout while she was speaking at an event), it can go a long way during a crisis.
Also helping, says Sendyk, is the strength of your partnerships.
“You can have timelines, contingency plans, and spreadsheets—but when a major pivot is required, success comes down to trusted supplier relationships and people who are willing to move mountains on short notice,” she said of SIU’s recent move. “Our partners worked at remarkable speed to help identify solutions and create a viable path forward.”
COVID-19 likely helped a lot of event planners learn these skills, but it’s key to not get complacent as the ground shifts in other directions, or as staff leaves. Warner recommends regular crisis training for employees. “I think making it a regular part of business and not just a knee-jerk reaction part of business, is what needs to happen,” she adds.
5. Determine your “trigger point,” but be careful with your timing.
Ultimately, you must do something in the face of event disruption, something Warner calls the “trigger point,” where the decided upon plan for whatever next steps you plan to take. It can be a cancellation, a move, a crisis communications plan, or something else, but it needs to be in your pocket well before the moment occurs.
“It is really important to figure out, again, way ahead of time, what that trigger point’s going to be,” she says.
Sendyk adds that, when the going gets tough, as it did for SIU, this is a decision you can’t hand off to AI: “Technology is a powerful tool, but it still cannot replicate judgment, relationships, creativity under pressure, or the ability to negotiate three contracts while calming five stakeholders at the same time.”
The bad news about trigger points is that they’re not always clean decisions, and there is a risk of making a call too soon, something that came up for some event planners during the COVID-19 outbreak. “They canceled so early that they didn’t have a chance for it to become a force majeure,” she says.
Warner compares the approach to a hurricane.
“When the zone of uncertainty gets to be so close to where you are, there’s a point there where you make a decision because you’ve got plenty of notice.”
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