Mark Zuckerberg is betting that prediction markets are the future.
The New York Times reports that Zuck wants Meta to have its own Polymarket-like smartphone app and has given the go-ahead to develop one, internally calling it “Arena.” The app would be independent of Meta’s other social media offerings, although sources told the paper that those social sites could direct users to engagement with the app.
Sources said the current concept for Arena can be described as “experimental but a top priority,” and it weirdly wouldn’t involve money. Instead, it would essentially be a video game where users would earn points for betting correctly on particular topics. The sources added that money could be added later.
Over the past year, prediction markets have fueled big profits and controversy. As of April, trading volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi had reached tens of billions of dollars. Other social media sites — like X (which forged a partnership with Polymarket last summer) — have sought to capitalize on the industry.
Legal cases have also spiked. A notable case involves a former high-ranking special forces soldier who was accused of using insider knowledge to profit from the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. George Santos is also currently under investigation over alleged Kalshi trades.
States have also begun to sue prediction markets over what they allege are violations of gambling laws. To complicate things further, the current administration, which is decidedly pro-prediction market, has sued states for having sued prediction markets.
