We’re pleased to announce this months excerpt from the Future Horizons Semiconductor Update. Check it out below for the latest industry insights:
Executive Summary
Annualised growth rates accelerated sharply in July, with Total Semiconductors growing 25.5 percent, up from last month’s 18.0 percent and May’s 18.5 percent, just three percentage points down from August 2024’s 28.5 percent cyclical peak.
Encouragingly, all three sectors performed well in July, with Total ICs continuing their lead as the prime industry growth driver at a robust 28.8 percent, significantly up from 19.9 percent in June and 21.4 percent in May, with Opto up 8.0 percent and Discretes up 6.9 percent, vs. last month’s 6.8 percent and 4.8 percent respectively.
Whilst the overall semiconductor market still showed a strong double-digit growth, the overall trend is flat, at around the 20 percent plus/minus level, varying from August 2024’s 36.2 percent peak to January 2025’s 14.8 percent low.
These peaks do not last forever, nor do they turn up, and we continue to expect to see this trend turn down in the coming months, as per past cyclical patterns, with the only uncertainty being as to when this will happen.
Forecast Update
Logic’s 37.2 percent annualised growth in July re-enforced its displacement of Memory, at 25.7 percent growth, as the IC sector’s star growth performer.
Logic’s growth was fuelled by a lacklustre 4.6 percent growth in units and an eyewatering 31.3 percent growth in ASPs, the sixth month in a row of 30 plus percent annualised growth.
As mentioned earlier, quite what is driving Logic’s strong growth is not clear but this time around, contrary to historical growth and competitive patterns, it is more in synch with Memory than the other product segments.
It is also ASP, not unit driven, which flies in the face of decades old semiconductor ethos (Moore’s law) and conventional economic (supply and demand) theory.
Clearly TSMC’s recent price hikes have been a contributory factor, along with the deep-pockets of the current spendthrift data-centre customers. Watch out for these prices to plummet once the broader IC market recovers and Moore’s second law kicks in … “The long-term IC ASP price is a dollar!”
Read The Full Report Here: https://www.futurehorizons.com/page/137/
In addition to its monthly report, Future Horizons is offering a one-day Silicon Chip Industry Workshop in London, giving a clear introduction to the semiconductor industry, from technology and manufacturing to markets and trends. Upcoming dates include 28 Oct 2025, 10 Mar, and 9 Jun, click here for more information on the workshops!
