If you rank well in traditional search results, does that mean you’ll get cited in AI Overviews?
We decided to find out.
We pulled one million keywords that triggered AI Overviews and extracted the top three links cited within those AIOs: a total of 1.9 million citation links in our database.
We then analyzed the relationship between:
- Where websites ranked in Google’s traditional top 10 results
- Whether and where those same websites got cited in AI Overviews
We calculated the Spearman correlation between ranking in the top 10 and being cited in the top 3 AI Overview results. The correlation was 0.347.
This is a positive moderate correlation, which suggests that higher SERP rankings are associated with a greater likelihood of being cited in AI Overviews.
However, it’s not a guarantee.
Even pages ranking #1 only appear in the top three cited links in AI Overviews about 50% of the time. So yes, while it’s true that if you rank #1 in the SERPs, you’re more likely to be cited in an AI Overview than if you were ranked lower.
But that chance is a coin flip at best.
Here’s where it gets interesting. We also looked at the correlation between the position of the cited URL versus their organic ranking positions.
The correlation was 0.445.
In other words, pages that rank higher in the SERPs don’t just have a better chance of being cited; they also tend to be cited more prominently in the AI Overview when they’re included.
Wrapping up
From our research, it seems that Google does use some overlapping signals for both traditional rankings and AI Overviews selection. But the correlations tell us that AI Overviews aren’t simply repackaging the top search results.
SEO still matters. Higher rankings improve your chances of AI Overview citations. And if you can rank high and get cited, you’re more likely to be featured prominently in the AI Overview.
However, our study also suggests that there is something beyond traditional SEO. While we don’t yet know all the factors Google uses for AIO selection, it’s clear they’re not simply lifting the top search results.
Maybe, as our research suggests, it’s all about your brand and web mentions.
If you’d like to track your branded mentions in AI Overviews, make sure to check out Brand Radar:
- Go to Ahrefs Brand Radar
- Hit the “Google AI Overviews” tab
- Search for your brand name
- Select “keyword OR AI Overview” from the dropdown
This will show your total AI Overview ownership, and any growth or decline over time.
Any questions or comments? Let me know on LinkedIn.
