New research from H&P Law finds pedestrian fatality rates remain dramatically higher in several Southern and Southwestern states despite recent nationwide improvements
Pedestrian fatalities are beginning to move in the right direction across the United States, but a new nationwide analysis suggests the improvements are far from universal.
According to a new study conducted by H&P Law, pedestrian deaths declined for the second consecutive year nationwide, with preliminary data showing 3,024 pedestrians were killed during the first six months of 2025, a 10.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The decline represents the largest annual improvement recorded since the Governors Highway Safety Association began tracking pedestrian fatality trends.
Despite that progress, the study found pedestrian risk remains heavily concentrated in certain parts of the country. Using federal crash data covering 2015 through 2024, researchers ranked every state based on fatal pedestrian crashes occurring during the summer months and discovered that pedestrians in the highest-risk state were more than five times as likely to be killed as those in the safest state.
The findings reinforce that while national trends may be improving, local roadway conditions, traffic patterns and driver behavior continue to produce vastly different outcomes depending on where pedestrians travel.
- 3,024 pedestrians were killed during the first half of 2025, a 10.9% decline from the previous year.
- 7,148 pedestrian fatalities occurred nationwide during 2024, down 4.3% year over year.
- Fatal pedestrian crashes remain approximately 20% higher than 2016 levels.
- New Mexico recorded the nation’s highest summer pedestrian fatality rate at 9.44 per 100,000 residents.
- Minnesota ranked safest at 1.73 per 100,000 residents.
- One in four pedestrian fatalities now involves a hit-and-run driver.
- 3,407 pedestrians were killed in summer hit-and-run crashes between 2015 and 2024.
- 1,531 impaired pedestrians lost their lives during summer crashes over the same period.
- More than $40 billion in societal costs were attributed to pedestrian deaths during the first half of 2025.
Recent national data points toward encouraging momentum.
| Year | Pedestrian Fatalities | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| First Half 2025 | 3,024 | -10.9% |
| 2024 | 7,148 | -4.3% |
| Compared with 2016 | Approximately 20% higher |
The first-half decline recorded during 2025 represents the largest improvement since nationwide tracking began, but H&P Law’s analysis found those gains are far from evenly distributed.
During the first six months of 2025:
- 24 states experienced increases in pedestrian fatalities.
- 23 states and Washington, D.C. reported declines.
- Three states remained unchanged.
States including California, Maryland, New Mexico, New York and Alabama posted some of the largest reductions, helping lower the national total.
The variation demonstrates why national averages often fail to capture the risks pedestrians experience at the local level.
Rather than measuring total pedestrian deaths alone, H&P Law adjusted fatalities for population to determine where pedestrians face the greatest overall risk during the summer.
The results show the highest fatality rates remain concentrated across the Southwest and Southeast.
| Rank | State | Summer Fatality Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | 9.44 |
| 2 | South Carolina | 7.94 |
| 3 | Mississippi | 7.03 |
| 4 | Arizona | 6.94 |
| 5 | Louisiana | 6.85 |
| 6 | Florida | 6.57 |
| 7 | California | 5.97 |
| 8 | Delaware | 5.89 |
| 9 | Alabama | 5.72 |
| 10 | Texas | 5.59 |
By comparison, Minnesota’s rate of 1.73 made it the safest state in the nation, followed by Idaho, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Massachusetts, Iowa, Rhode Island, Vermont, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
The difference between New Mexico and Minnesota exceeded 445%, illustrating how dramatically pedestrian safety varies across the country.
The consequences of pedestrian crashes reach well beyond fatality statistics.
According to the study, pedestrian deaths occurring during the first half of 2025 generated an estimated $40 billion in economic and societal costs.
Federal valuation models estimate each pedestrian fatality costs society approximately $13.2 million, accounting for:
- Emergency medical care
- Lost lifetime earnings
- Insurance claims
- Legal expenses
- Public resources
- Reduced quality of life
- Family and community impacts
Although fatalities have begun to decline, the overall financial burden remains substantial because each fatal crash produces long-term economic consequences extending well beyond the collision itself.
The period between Memorial Day and Labor Day has earned the nickname “The 100 Deadliest Days” because of the increased number of serious traffic crashes occurring during the summer months.
The H&P Law study points to several reasons why pedestrian risk increases during this period.
Summer brings:
- Higher traffic volumes
- Increased tourism
- More outdoor recreation
- Larger numbers of pedestrians
- More inexperienced teen drivers
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that teen drivers are approximately three times more likely to be involved in fatal crashes during the summer than during other parts of the year.
With more pedestrians using parks, entertainment districts, shopping centers and neighborhood streets, opportunities for vehicle-pedestrian conflicts increase significantly.
Crash severity changes dramatically with speed.
Research cited in the study from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety found:
| Impact Speed | Average Chance of Death |
|---|---|
| 23 mph | 10% |
| 42 mph | 50% |
| 58 mph | 90% |
These figures help explain why many pedestrian fatalities occur along wide, high-speed arterial roads where drivers have less time to react and collisions occur at significantly higher speeds.
The analysis also found impairment remains a major contributing factor.
| Alcohol-Related Findings | Statistic |
|---|---|
| Pedestrians killed with BAC of at least 0.08% | 29% |
| Fatal crashes involving impaired drivers | 16% |
| Summer impaired pedestrian fatalities (2015-2024) | 1,531 |
California recorded the highest number of impaired pedestrian fatalities during summer months, followed by Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, South Carolina and Colorado.
Meanwhile, hit-and-run crashes continue to account for a substantial share of pedestrian deaths.
| Hit-and-Run Statistics | Total |
|---|---|
| Pedestrian deaths involving hit-and-run (2024) | 1,749 |
| Share of all pedestrian fatalities | 25% |
| Summer hit-and-run pedestrian deaths (2015-2024) | 3,407 |
California led the nation with 566 summer hit-and-run pedestrian fatalities, followed by Texas (421) and Florida (261).
The study found pedestrian fatalities are concentrated in a relatively small number of metropolitan areas.
Among cities with populations exceeding 350,000 residents:
| Rank | City | Death Rate per 100,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memphis | 69.5 |
| 2 | Albuquerque | 62.5 |
| 3 | Tucson | |
| 4 | Phoenix | |
| 5 | Detroit | |
| 6 | New Orleans | |
| 7 | Tampa | |
| 8 | Atlanta | |
| 9 | Miami | |
| 10 | Dallas |
Many of these cities are located in states that also ranked among the nation’s highest for pedestrian fatalities, reinforcing the regional trends identified throughout the analysis.
While pedestrian fatalities are finally beginning to decline nationwide, the latest research from H&P Law indicates that meaningful disparities remain between states and local communities.
The study demonstrates that pedestrian safety is influenced by more than population size. Infrastructure, roadway design, vehicle speeds, impaired driving and seasonal travel patterns all contribute to where fatal crashes occur most frequently.
As Americans continue spending more time outdoors throughout the summer, the research suggests that geography continues to play a major role in pedestrian safety. National improvements are encouraging, but they also mask substantial differences that leave some states facing significantly higher risks than others.
